Ending AIDS: Progress and prospects for the control of HIV and TB in South Africa

We assess the prospects for ending AIDS in South Africa using a dynamical model to fit data on time trends in HIV prevalence and anti-retroviral treatment (ART) coverage for adults. We estimate current and project future trends in HIV incidence, prevalence and AIDS related deaths, in ART coverage and incidence, and in TB notification rates. We consider two scenarios: constant effort under which people continue to be started on treatment at the current rate and expanded treatment and prevention under which testing rates are increased, everyone is started on treatment as soon as they are found to be infected with HIV, and voluntary medical male circumcision, pre-exposure prophylaxis and condom